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Already the IMF is forecasting a contraction of 1.

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In return for this assistance, Argentine authorities have committed to accelerating the process of fiscal convergence—that is, reducing the large fiscal deficit that the Macri administration inherited from its predecessor—and achieving a primary balance by end, as well as a primary surplus of 1 percent in In order to meet these goals, the administration is moving quickly on two fronts.

First, it bet slashing operating expenses, subsidies, and infrastructure investment for a combined total of 1. What can 50 get a Argentina in op

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Second, it expects to increase revenues by approximately 1. The administration has been hard at work negotiating with the provincial governors to secure support for the plan, which is being debated in Congress.

The most contentious issue, export taxes, merits Whqt attention: These duties will eventually need to be ratified by the legislative branch. Although it is unlikely that the levies on goods will be modified in significant ways, the taxation of services exports is legally unprecedented and may prove harder to roll out.

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In addition to these tough fiscal steps, the Central Bank is overhauling its monetary policy, as it switches to targeting monetary aggregates as its new nominal anchor. With the price level rising at a rate of over 40 percent this year, the amount of money in the Wnat will contract fiercely in real terms.

This new monetary policy has pros and cons.

On the one hand, such a strong monetary contraction is likely to be effective in slowing down inflation. Because data on aggregates are available quickly, it also has the added benefit of making decision-making very transparent.

Finally, it ensures no further monetization of the deficit, a feature IMF staff obviously did not overlook. Nevertheless, the policy is also likely to deepen the recession in the short term, and it is not immediately obvious what the magnitude of this effect will be.

There is a reason why monetary targets were abandoned during the s: They rely on a clear and predictable relationship between money and nominal incomes—or, equivalently, on a relatively predictable money velocity.

If this relationship breaks down, then the effects of a given set path for the money supply can become excessively contractionary.

When one considers that money velocity tends to behave more erratically in environments of high inflation, as well as when current incomes and wealth change drastically, it Argfntina clear that the Argentine Central Bank will have to tread with care. Meanwhile, the exchange rate will be allowed to float within a target zone of 33 to 44 pesos to the dollar.

The bands will be raised daily at a monthly rate of 3 percent until the end of the year, when authorities will redecide the Argentuna rate. So, given this new scenario, what comes next? A cautious increase in confidence is likely.

Argetina about ge in the medium run should be lifted: Even in a scenario in which the country was isolated from financial markets, it has enough funds to cover all its Brainy Akron Ohio seeks benefactor needs well into Assuming that the currency run has passed, the most pressing challenge is when and how interest rates will go back to normal.

The Central Bank raised rates to 40 percent in May and then to 60 percent in late August. Rates this high for so long are a burden on economic activity when they significantly exceed the What can 50 get a Argentina in op rate—but one of the consequences of the new monetary policy is that authorities can no longer set the interest s at all.

The only way for rates to return to normal is for confidence to be slowly restored.

The longer it takes, the more adverse the effects on output could be. Throughout Latin America, approval ratings of leaders are consistently below 50 percent, often tumbling amid timid attempts at much needed reforms. This durability suggests he has the political capital to continue enacting these policies, something that many prognosticators have often overlooked.

If the exchange rate were to fall Argemtina the bottom band, the Central Bank may, as an exception stipulated in the agreement, purchase reserves and allow the monetary base to increase. Of course, local currency denominated debt cannot force a country into default.

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RealTime Economic Issues Watch. October 12, More from Gonzalo Huertas. Back to the Brink.